There’s a bit of buzz going on right now about the release of Diaspora. If you’re not familiar with the name, it is essentially to Facebook what Linux is to Windows. That’s right, the collectivists are rising up again. Just as numerous articles about iTunes, Facebook, Apps, and other ‘walled gardens’have begun circulating through the media, the holdouts of a “free Web” are working hard to disrupt the corporate machine with a free offering.
The question is, this time, will the ‘free web’collectivists prevail. History is in their favor. However, we live in a very different time. The capitalists have made significant inroads and far more is at stake now that the Internet is recognized by money holders as an important revenue source and potential profit center.
So, do we want information to be free? Or would we prefer to pay for the convenience of walled gardens? Facebook has been reluctant to charge for membership even though 5¢ per user per month would have major impact on revenue. Yet nominal fees for Flip cameras and ‘good enough’technologies like MP3 have subverted higher quality by delivering more convenience. We’re all time crunched and often times good enough is truly good enough.
Different devices same dynamics.
For power users of the Internet, ’free’is almost an expectation. Yet increasingly people outside this small subset are becoming more comfortable with forking over a nominal fee for a small application or bit of content. Sure you could find that article online somewhere, but for a few bucks its just easier to get an online subscription.
When we do this, however, we make a choice. Just as AT&T holds iPhone users captive and Blu Ray and HDVD fought it out for format dominance, so we become held fast to iTunes or Amazon. You might argue that one can always jump ship and abandon a standard by abandoning a device but often times you have to give up previous acquisitions based on proprietary formats. That can represent a significant investment.
By the same token, sticking steadfastly to open standards and avoiding the walled gardens omits us from the popular places and often leaves us chasing multiple formats and inter-device compatibility. Tech-headed hardcore collectivists will put in the time to smooth this out, but most of us won’t bother.
These are not new problems. They are the problems phone companies thrust upon their long-distance account holders 15 years ago and home video player owners pushed on people 25 years ago. Interestingly, in both cases a disruptive technology made the point moot as VOIP killed charge-for-distace telephony and is now eroding the need for a disc-playing video device in the home.
Today Hulu and YouTube and AppleTV and Netflix are all fighting to dominate the video-via-Internet market. This is the same battle as long distance telephone and home video players, just a different base technology.
There is another important difference too. We live in a mature post-mass-media world now. This would indicate that a single dominant player is less likely to emerge as market dynamics favor niche audiences and niche products most of the time.
Generation gap.
In my mind the single greatest ideological collision of our time is that of the open-source, everything-free collectivists who pioneered the web and the capitalists who have funded its explosive growth and much of its innovation. Squarely a Gen Xer, I grew up with a free internet and have that expectation. Millennials and the generation following them (now in grade school) are growing up with $2 apps and pay-for-content models. Where I am offended by the affront of having to pay for content, younger web users think nothing of this.
Sure, there will always be holdouts. You will always be able to get content for free from someone, somewhere. Even today anyone with bit torrent savvy can skip right by Netflix and Apple TV and download full length movies for free. This will always be a thorn in the capitalist’s side but now that so many others are comfortable using the Internet there’s plenty of available market share to profit on. Were I to put my money down now, I would say the capitalists have a growing advantage. Time and the aging of the Net Generation is on their side. The growing size of the non-power userbase who favor paying for convenience is also on their side. My suspicion is, just like Ning, Disapora will only see a little traction. Where Apache, MySQL and Linux are tools for the very collectivists who use them, social network software like Diaspora is meant for the non-poweruser who frankly wants to hang out with friends. Those friends have already chosen Facebook.
But…
It is worth sounding a not of caution to the capitalists though. If you build a walled garden, it needs to be Eden. AOL learned this the hard way. They built easy and convenient but blocked out too much. As more and more people began to hear that there was ‘more’outside the garden they got curious and began to climb over the wall. Facebook works very hard to keep up with people’s needs. Adding Places to FB immediately kicked Foursquare and Gowalla down a notch. Why? Because 500MM people use FB. If the non-poweruser wants to be where everyone is, Facebook has the advantage right now.
The second challenge is privacy. While people are increasingly willing to participate in capitalism online, they are sensitive about their information. One significant slip there could have a heavy cost as trust online is hard to earn. Even more interestingly, the 140-character nature of our reading habits fuels this fire. We see the headlines of bank hacks and privacy violations and often don’t read the articles. The net effect is things can feel less secure than they really are. There’s also a strong collectivist set within the mainstream locations like Facebook. These are the people who post Facebook’s quiet privacy policy changes for the world to see. Inherently leery of the capitalists, they are self-appointed agents of the masses and work hard to subvert the efforts of capitalists from within their own walled gardens.
The third challenge is innovation outside the capitalist model. Disruptive technologies have tended to come from those who do not buy into the capitalist philosophy. Apache and Linux were swipes against what power users saw an inferior technologies that were overpriced. So these developers banded together and turned the marketplace upside down. Now the “LAMP stack” is the favored, open format for the web. Perhaps something similar is being worked on now that will shatter the proprietary iTunes and Amazon formats.
I’m watching Apple begin to behave a little less like the underdog and a little more like Microsoft used to be accused of. You know, monopolistic. Google is doing the same. My guess is, in some cellar somewhere someone with no greater agenda than sticking it to the Man is developing something that will eventually chip away at the capitalists again. If enough people get wind of this – and that is increasingly easy in our interconnected age – it might make a difference.
The future favors the capitalists and the trend right now is to choose convenience over freedom, but it is a far more fragile advantage than in the past and trends online shift quickly.


For a client I’m working with, we recruited an anthropologist to help us segment prospective target constituencies for a business that deals with world cultures. In the course of discussions with this anthropologist I was introduced to the term ‘technodispositions’. As I understood it, this is an assessment of a group’s/culture’s likelihood to use technology. It combines three avenues of inquiry: