Tag Archives: change

Thanks Dad

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So my father emailed me the video embedded below today. (Which in and of itself is a sign things are changing at all strata of society.) If you have 5min. it’s worth sitting through. A lot of interesting factoids. I am told Sony used it as a set up in a conference.

As I watched it, this video validated my assumptions about the pace of change in the world. I also got to thinking again about the concept of expertise that is so readily throw around these days. Sure, I understand it’s role in the selling process, in building confidence in decisions, etc.

But…

Can anyone really claim expertise when everything around us is moving this fast? Wouldn’t it make more sense to watch wide-eyed like a child and sponge up as much as possible?

Young children learn very quickly because they don’t let their assumptions and a sense of certainty get in their way. Everything is new to them. They (unknowingly) come across many disconfirming insights because they simply don’t have that many confirmed ones at an early age. And children (and their brains) adapt on the fly. It’s no accident young people take to new technologies fast than older people.

The older we grow the more we know. But we need to stay young at heart (and at brain) and continually update that information. I’ve mentioned recently that experience is very important and sometimes under appreciated in the high-tech end of industry.My point was that experience comes from mistake making which takes time to do thoroughly. In making mistakes we encounter unexpected results which are new experiences we can fold into our future decision making.

A related topic has apparently been muttered about recently at SXSW as ‘search vs. serendipity’ an inquiry into how digital media – because is it fully user controlled – can work against us in that it allows us to easily cocoon ourselves around confirming information. A recent  New York Times editorial column (thanks to Alan Wolk for pointing it out) also took on a similar slant.

Anyhow, I digress. The net, net of the video below is, things are changing fast (which we all knew, but the stats are fun to revisit now and then). If we really want to be experts on any of what’s going on, we have to make a conscious effort not to believe we’re experts. In doing so we free ourselves up to seek out the disconfirming information that broadens our horizons, updates our brains and allows us to make better decisions based on what’s happening here and now.


Mistakes, Change, Trial & Error

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I have been reading a great book on the neuroscience behind decision making. I was reading that the brain likes to be right. It wants to predict outcomes. Dopamine secretion happens when events work according to the brain’s expectation (i.e. dopamine is a reward). The secretions stop or change when things don’t work as planned. This abrupt reduction in dopamine is experienced as a jarring change by the body. Here, the brain modifies its expectations to try and be right the next time (and to keep the dopamine flowing).

So it seems that the brain’s use of dopamine is tied to learning via trial and error. Mistakes, to the brain, are useful (and necessary) learning tools provided we choose to learn from them. In fact, this type of learning often gives rise to the ‘instinctual’ reactions well-experience professionals make in athletics, combat, or emergencies.

In thinking about this idea of learning from mistakes, I couldn’t help being reminded of the ‘Now Not New‘ concept I organize many of my own business perspectives on.

In business terms, ‘Now Not New’ is a revenue-centric outlook that leverages the trials and errors of those focusing on ‘new’ to provide real solutions ‘now’. By my way of thinking, pioneers take big risks, probe the unknown, and most often fail. For some people the high-risk excitment of being on the bleeding edge is a great motivator.  Certainly our culture’s willingness to reward those people with hype and praise adds to the appeal.

For businesses, these pioneers provide great learning that can be refined and redirected with a higher probability of tangible success (see my earlier bit on inventions). In this sense, businesses focused on ‘Now Not New’ may not get the first wave of buzz that pioneers attract, but they tend to make the money and build new business categories. Hulu is doing it now against YouTube. YouTube you’ll recall got a lot of hype and market valuation but still isn’t making anyone much money. Conversely, because it is making money Hulu is getting plenty of hype. Which, as an executive would you prefer?

Related, it seems that neurologically speaking unpredictable outcomes – either from mistakes or change beyond our control – are jarring. It’s no surprise then that human beings tend to dislike making mistakes or coping with change despite lip service otherwise.

Companies, by extension, also seem to prefer homeostasis. Yes, there are plenty of people and books and seminars preaching the embrace of change and the positive benefit of mistake making. But between the lines, what they’re selling is a means of ‘expecting the unexpected’ which is in fact fighting the jarring feeling of mistakes and change and attempting to make it predictable.

Switching gears for a moment, in stories about wilderness survival, most tragedies stem from the endangered person’s refusal to acknowledge the change in their circumstances or to learn from a mistake once they’ve made it. They can’t let go of what was supposed to happen and won’t accept what is now happening. In this state of denial they become disoriented to the reality around them, make poor choices, and often pay the ultimate price.

Transferring this knowledge from the wilderness frontier to the business frontier: On the topic of expertise, it might make sense to be wary of anyone claiming to be an expert in an industry that hasn’t been around long. Expertise comes with experience which is an accumulation of a lot of trial and error. In businesses (and I’m thinking social media) that haven’t been around very long, it’s simply impossible to have made enough mistakes to be considered an expert at this nacent stage.

Second, we should admit when we’re lost, confused or uncomfortable. Denial in business leads to paying its own ultimate price. Once we acknowledge being lost, we can start looking for a way out.

Third, we should build mechanisms into our organizations that allow us to learn from mistakes.

Lastly, acknowledge and behave according to the fact that nothing is consistently predictable. This means setting up operational mechanisms to observe and asses at regular intervals. It also means thinking hard about how to adapt to change knowing that everyone in the company will be uncomfortable with it.

In mistakes, change and trial and error lie opportunities for business poised to see and solve for the problems of now which in turn will lead to growth and revenue (the dopamine of industry).